Latest study rebuts critics of Global Commission Report on climate and economics
Global warming can be kept to agreed levels (below 2C) without hurting economic development. U.S. policy-makers therefore need to redo their math and can afford to bolster their climate change policies to take more aggressive steps to mitigate climate change.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
WINNIPEG—September 19, 2014—Global warming can be kept to agreed levels (below 2C) without hurting economic development. U.S. policy-makers therefore need to redo their math and can afford to bolster their climate change policies to take more aggressive steps to mitigate climate change.
This is according to a newly released independent analysis based on a leading climate-economics model, and rebuts critics of the recently released New Climate Economy report by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate.
The DICE Model Reassessment, developed by Dr. Robert Repetto, an International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) and United Nations Foundation senior fellow and Dr. Robert Easton, professor emeritus of applied mathematics at the University of Colorado, analyzed the most prominent climate economics assessment model (DICE), and found that recent estimates used by the U.S. and others prove to be too pessimistic about the ability to balance efforts to fight climate change while maintaining economic growth.
The analysis reveals that if major emitting nations, such as the USA, adopt efficient policies to reduce emissions, world output over the period 2010-2050 would expand at 2.28% percent per year and warming would stabilize below a 2 degree increase. That is virtually the same rate, 2.31% per year, at which GDP would grow if global warming were not kept to safe limits. However, in the more protective scenario, emissions per unit of output would decline more than twice as rapidly.
A subsequent phase of the work is now underway which will apply probability distributions to some of the key variables, to see how incorporating uncertainty in the model (that reflects the uncertainty seen in the climate science and economics literature) will affect the model’s results.
For more information please contact Sumeep Bath, media and communications officer, at sbath@iisd.org or +1 (204) 958 7740.
About IISD
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an award-winning independent think tank working to accelerate solutions for a stable climate, sustainable resource management, and fair economies. Our work inspires better decisions and sparks meaningful action to help people and the planet thrive. We shine a light on what can be achieved when governments, businesses, non-profits, and communities come together. IISD’s staff of more than 250 experts come from across the globe and from many disciplines. With offices in Winnipeg, Geneva, Ottawa, and Toronto, our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries.
You might also be interested in
The Next Generation of National Climate Plans Must Phase Out Fossil Fuels
On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, IISD is calling on governments to deliver ambitious, specific, and actionable national climate plans for the coming decade.
Sustainable Asset Valuation of Climate-Resilient Landscapes in Ghana
In this integrated cost-benefit analysis, the Nature-Based Infrastructure Global Resource Centre analyzes the potential of nature-based infrastructure (NBI) to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events under different climate scenarios in Ghana.
Compensation and Damages in Investor-State Dispute Settlement
This report provides policy reform options to address the growing issue of damages awards in investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS).
Senegal’s LNG Drive Is an Economic Gamble
Senegal’s plan to drive economic growth through exports of LNG—largely to Europe—is a gamble, new research warns, as forecasts indicate an imminent decline in international demand for gas.