March 2025 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

Last month, governments awarded 17,000 square kilometers to the oil and gas industry to further their exploration activities. Oil and gas companies have drilled 160 exploratory wells while some with the equivalent of 56.6 MtCO2e worth of conventional oil and gas were discovered. The United States remains the country that has awarded the most exploration licences over the past 12 months.

Exploration activities in Brazil have led to a re-evaluation of underlying reserves in fields awarded in August last year from 9.7 MtCO2e to 84.5 MtCO2e of embodied emissions. Intensifying exploration efforts in Brazil also led to the biggest new oil and gas discoveries last month. A deeper reservoir under the already large Buzios pre-salt field was found to contain about 47.5 MtCO2e. The Buzios, an ultra-deep field estimated to hold around 4,752 MtCO2 of embodied emissions, is located in the Santos basin off the coast of Rio de Janeiro.

Otherwise, China continues to lead the list of countries with planned licensing rounds with the largest volume of estimated embodied emissions despite cancelling more than half of its bidding rounds earlier this year. It is followed by Mexico and the United States.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

Last month, a total of 22 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded across six countries, with an estimated volume of discovered resources of 45.4 million barrels of oil and 10.4 billion cubic feet of gas. Notably, Türkiye awarded licences with the largest potential climate impact, totalling 19.8 million tonnes of embodied CO2 emissions.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

During the last month, total global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) amounted to USD 746.9 million. The companies that invested the most in oil and gas exploration projects were Inpex, Petronas, and Samuel H Cade, spending a combined USD 455.9 million. TPAO, Inpex, and Petronas secured exploration licences with the highest embodied emissions, mainly from Malaysia and Türkiye.

Rolling Annual Update

Licences Awarded

Over the past 12 months, a total of 1,069 oil and gas exploration licences were awarded. If fully exploited, the licensed reserves will release an estimated 1,399.3 million tonnes of CO2 emissions. The highest volume of embodied emissions, at 278.4 MtCO2, was seen in August 2024. Notably, of the countries granting licences over the last 12 months, those with limited capabilities to transition away from fossil fuels and a heavy reliance on them, such as Russia, will potentially contribute the most to the global carbon footprint.

Note: The embodied carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are based on four country groups catergorized by the Civil Society Equity Review (2023). Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries' ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Exploration CapEx

In the last 12 months, the total CapEx into oil and gas exploration projects awarded has reached USD 24.7 billion. August 2024 projects are getting the most significant investments. On average, monthly CapEx stands at USD 2.1 billion. Among the key investors are Chevron, Shell, and Elysian Petroleum, collectively investing USD 4.1 billion in exploration projects awarded.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

As of last month, there were 34 licensing rounds open for bidding or under evaluation for oil and gas exploration. Looking ahead, 154 exploration licensing rounds are planned in the next 6 months. The global emissions that would result from burning the estimated resources in these upcoming rounds are projected to be around 10,603.3 million tonnes of CO2. Notably, China is planning exploration licensing rounds with the potential to unleash 8,035.1 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere.

About the Carbon Minefields Newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on oil and gas expansion globally, reporting on every new oil and gas exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these licences, translating them into total embodied emissions—that is, the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

Halting new fossil fuel projects is a key step in limiting global warming to 1.5°C and transitioning away from fossil fuels, as agreed by 198 countries at the 28th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 28). Research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD); we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2025) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2025) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2025-03-06 and published with Rystad’s permission. Embodied emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-3.5 Turbo. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on March 13, 2025. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation.

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at oboisvonkursk@iisd.ca or ceposadap@iisd.ca.