May 2026 | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor

For the second month in a row, the United States has dominated new licensing activity, awarding 74 new exploration licences in April alone. This latest tranche adds to the continued acceleration in domestic upstream activity and signals that U.S. oil majors are doubling down on their exploration activities as the conflict in Iran continues to impede exports from the Strait of Hormuz.

For the more than 70% of the world's population living in net fossil fuel-importing countries, however, this latest energy crisis is yet another demonstration of how expensive and unreliable those imports can be and the benefits of reducing fossil fuel dependence. This theme took centre stage at the First Conference on Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels in Santa Marta, Colombia, last month. Bringing together nearly 60 countries, the conference catalyzed political momentum on the development of national roadmaps to transition away from fossil fuels, with participants repeatedly framing energy security as one of the key reasons to accelerate the shift. Indeed, analysis ahead of the conference found that in Germany and Türkiye, clean energy investments have helped avoid billions in gas import costs.

China has similarly managed to insulate itself from the worst of the supply shock, due in part to the acceleration of renewable energy, diversification of imports, and the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves. The country’s energy transition continues to advance at an unmatched pace with wind and solar electricity generation rising 25% in 2024, compared to the previous year. China has also accelerated the electrification of its transport sector, with about as many electric vehicles on the road as the rest of the world combined, leaving demand for gasoline set to decline by 5.5% this year.

While China’s domestic demand for oil and gas is expected to peak over the coming years, its oil and gas production is forecasted to continue growing until the mid-2030s. China has the most active upstream pipeline for the remainder of the year, with 26 exploration blocks in the planning stage, potentially unlocking nearly 19 trillion cubic feet (cf) of gas if those rounds proceed.

Monthly Update

New Exploration Licences Awarded

In April 2026, governments awarded 79 new oil and gas exploration licences across four countries, containing resources that could emit an estimated 59.8 MtCO2 if fully combusted. The United States accounted for the largest share, licensing 23.3 million barrels of oil (bbl) and 412.9 billion cf of gas, equivalent to 35.5 MtCO2 of end-use emissions. This expansion prolongs fossil fuel dependence, exposing countries to environmental and economic risks.

Oil and Gas Companies' Exploration Activities

Global exploration capital expenditure (CapEx) into oil and gas licences awarded in April 2026 topped USD 2,227.9 million, with Marginal Energy, BP, and Woodside investing USD 1,164.3 million. These same three companies also secured the licences with the largest potential end-use emissions, predominantly in Sierra Leone and the United States.

Licences Awarded

In the last 12 months, 779 new oil and gas exploration licences were awarded, containing resources whose combustion could release an estimated 2,165.4 MtCO2. June 2025 alone accounted for 1,002.2 MtCO2. Many of the biggest issuers are nations with low fossil fuel dependence and limited capacity to transition away, and among these, Brazil tops the list for the highest licensed carbon potential. Brazil, however, building on its 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP 30) presidency, has committed to developing a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, potentially signalling changing winds ahead.

Note: The end-use carbon emissions from newly awarded licences are presented based on four country groups, based on the Civil Society Equity Review (2023) categorization. Countries are grouped based on two main axes: 1) their capacity to transition and 2) their dependence on fossil fuels, which provides a rationale to determine how fast they should phase out their domestic production. These indicators are measured based on countries’ ability to deal with the costs and disruptions of climate change and historical emissions, as well as an assessment of how much a country’s socio-economic welfare is dependent on extraction.

Rolling Annual Update

Exploration CapEx

The oil and gas industry secured USD 30.1 billion in capital expenditure for exploration in projects awarded over the past 12 months, averaging USD 2.5 billion per month. Chevron, Petrobras, and BP alone committed USD 5.9 billion. June 2025 awards drew the highest investment.

Outlook

Ongoing and Upcoming Licensing Rounds

Currently, 114 oil and gas exploration licences are open for bidding or under evaluation, potentially unlocking reserves that could emit 25 352.3 MtCO₂ if fully burned. Additionally, 76 blocks are slated for licensing rounds over the next six months, with estimated end-use emissions of 3,563.3 MtCO₂. China leads this expansion, with planned blocks potentially releasing 1,330.8 MtCO₂ if reserves are extracted and burned. These figures underscore the stark mismatch between the industry’s push for new projects and the urgent need to curb greenhouse gas emissions.

About the Carbon Minefields Newsletter

This newsletter provides monthly updates on global oil and gas expansion, reporting on every new oil and gas field and exploration licence awarded. It also tracks the climate impact of these fields and licences, translating them into total end-use emissions—that is, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) released into the atmosphere if the licensed oil and gas is extracted and burned. Finally, the monitoring of companies’ spending to explore and develop new oil and gas fields provides additional insights into the industry’s expansion activities. Certain data are segmented according to countries’ capacity to transition away from oil and gas.

During the global stocktake at COP 28, countries agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. This is urgent to limit global warming to 1.5°C. Moreover, research by Green et al. (2024) in Science shows there is more than enough oil and gas in existing fields to meet Paris-aligned energy demand. Accordingly, the Carbon Minefields newsletter monitors efforts to expand oil and gas production beyond already operating fields—flagging misalignment with the Paris Agreement target.

The data above are collected by experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development; we use AI and programming tools to extract and analyze data from Rystad Energy (2026) before reviewing all content for accuracy and clarity.

This newsletter is produced using data from Rystad Energy (2026) extracted from the UCubeExploration Browser v. 2026-05-05 and published with Rystad’s permission. End-use emission estimates were calculated by the authors using the IPCC emission factors of crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and gas. Data manipulation is automated with Python programming. Most text is generated with OpenAI's application programming interface using GPT-4o mini. The AI-generated outputs for this edition were produced on May 7, 2026. International Institute for Sustainable Development experts review all AI-generated content for accuracy, clarity, and further interpretation. 

For more information regarding the data presented and for national-level disaggregation, please contact us at [email protected] or [email protected].