Report

Senegal's Big LNG Gamble

Unpacking the risks

Senegal faces difficult decisions as it navigates a transition to becoming an exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) with a pipeline of new projects, largely targeting Europe. The need to develop new sources of government revenues must be balanced with meeting domestic energy needs and avoiding locking in an economically unsustainable energy pathway.

By Bathandwa Vazi, Richard Bridle on September 18, 2024

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Senegal's LNG expansion plans are a "gamble" & may result in stranded assets. Its LNG projects likely won't be operational until the mid-2030s, even though Europe's demand for LNG is forecast to drop in 2025.
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Senegal is banking on LNG to boost its economy & bolster domestic energy supply, but new research warns revenues may never reach government budgets, plans will entrench fossil fuel dependency, & there will be increased exposure to volatile international markets.
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Senegal has committed to increasing renewable energy & LNG. With renewables already boosting Senegal's economy, IISD research warns new LNG investments are not needed to hit energy targets as they also carry social, economic, & environmental risks.
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Senegal's plan to boost its economy by expanding liquefied natural gas (LNG) production comes as European demand is forecast to fall and market competition is on track to intensify.

A new IISD report warns that ramping up investment in LNG will entrench fossil fuel dependency, risks stranded assets, and would leave the economy more vulnerable to international price shocks.

Meanwhile, bringing more LNG online will come at a high cost requiring significant infrastructure investment, yet much of the revenue may never reach government budgets if LNG profits are reinvested into further deployment. With global LNG demand set to decline, and revenues uncertain, the government must consider a scenario where revenues are negligible.

Senegal already faces a range of climate-related challenges, including heat stress, shifting malaria patterns, and rising sea levels, while existing LNG exploration work has already reduced coastal communities' access to fertile fishing waters.

Renewable energy investments do not face the same risks as LNG and are already having a positive impact on Senegal's economy with costs falling rapidly. Prioritizing clean energy deployment, managing environmental and socio-economic risks, and re-evaluating LNG deployment should be key priorities for the Senegal government.