Sustainable Asset Valuation of the Nutrition Sensitive Agriculture Capacity Strengthening Project in Ethiopia

Since 1960, Ethiopia has seen an average temperature rise of 1 °C. Experienced most from July to September, this warming is accompanied by erratic rainfall patterns, resulting in soil erosion, reduced agricultural productivity, and increased risk of crop diseases and pests. Ethiopia is heavily reliant on agriculture, with the sector accounting for 40% of GDP, 80% of exports, and around 75% of employment in the country.

In recent years, prolonged droughts (2022 and 2023) have severely impacted food security. Malnutrition has become widespread, especially among children, with stunting levels rising to 39%, according to the 2023 Food and Nutrition Strategy baseline survey. The impacts of climate change are not only affecting the environment and the economy, but also devastating the health and nutrition of Ethiopia’s communities.

To combat this, the Ethiopian Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) and Save the Children created the Nutrition Sensitive Agriculture Capacity and System Strengthening Project (NSA CASE project). Over a 5-year span (2019–2024), the project focuses on strengthening the ministry’s system to enhance access, availability, and consumption of nutritious foods.

Implemented in three regions of Ethiopia—Oromia, Amhara, and Somali—interventions include planting drought-tolerant perennial fruit trees, introducing improved seed varieties, and using moisture-harvesting technologies. These actions are designed to address the region-specific climatic challenges while improving agricultural resilience and nutritional outcomes for Ethiopia’s most at-risk populations.

The assessment presented in this report uses the outcomes of the NSA CASE project to estimate the full impacts of investments for food resilience under the National Nutrition Sensitive Agriculture Strategy. As a result, project-specific results were extrapolated to match the additional funding allocated by the government and farmers, and the area impacted by these investments. This analysis therefore offers insights into the potential outcomes of the larger-scale initiative.

We used our Sustainable Asset Valuation (SAVi) methodology to assess a series of intervention options (including planting perennial fruit trees, using drought-tolerant crops, enhancing seed variety as part of climate-smart agriculture practices, and implementing moisture-harvesting technologies such as terraces, trenches, mulching, and geomembrane constructions to support water efficiency, improve nutrient uptake, and reduce soil erosion) across three scenarios:

• Nature-based infrastructure (NBI) Scenario 1 includes the economic valuation of all direct, indirect, and induced benefits, both tangible and intangible for farmers and society.
• NBI Scenario 2 includes the same interventions as Scenario 1 but focuses specifically on externalities linked to the agricultural sector.
• NBI Scenario 3 narrows further, only considering the economic impacts on the agriculture sector without considering broader environmental or societal benefits.

We found that for the first NBI Scenario, for every USD 1 invested in the project, up to USD 2.37 could be returned over a 26-year period, amounting to USD 46 billion (ETB 5,161 billion) in avoided costs and added environmental, social, and economic benefits. This includes job creation, increased agriculture productivity, carbon storage, avoided impacts from flood and drought, avoided loss of life from flooding, and malnutrition.

This study demonstrates that agroforestry and climate-smart agricultural and water management practices have the potential to reduce the impacts of flooding on the community, reduce impacts on agriculture and nutrition, protect livelihoods, and boost local economies through sustainable income.