Carbon Minefields: Oil and gas exploration is surging to pre-Covid levels
Despite agreeing to transition away from fossil fuels, governments are licensing new fields.
July 24, 2024 — Oil and gas exploration is booming despite an agreement at last year’s COP 28 climate summit to transition away from fossil fuels.
Experts at the International Institute for Sustainable Development analyzed global data collated by the research company Rystad. They found:
- Resources discovered in 2024 threaten to unleash 12 billion tonnes of CO2 if fully exploited—more than the past 4 years’ discoveries combined.
- Rich countries (the United States, Canada, Australia, Norway, and the United Kingdom) have issued two thirds of the global number of oil and gas licences since 2020.
- China, Mexico, and Russia are set to license the biggest volumes of oil and gas in the second half of 2024.
- Companies spent USD 26.2 billion looking for more oil and gas in the past 12 months. Equinor, Shell, and BP were the biggest investors.
- If all licensed fields are fully exploited, the world will extract more than twice as much oil and gas in 2040 as is compatible with a 1.5°C global warming limit. The “production gap” is widening at its highest rate since 2015.
- There is no room for new oil and gas fields under a 1.5°C global warming limit, peer-reviewed research shows.
Olivier Bois von Kursk, policy advisor at IISD, says, “Ending oil and gas licensing is a logical next step in the transition to clean energy. Governments need to put the COP 28 agreement into practice—particularly those with the wealth to drive investment into more sustainable sectors."
IISD is launching the Carbon Minefields newsletter to track the climate impact of global oil and gas licensing and capex data on a monthly basis.
Eduardo Posada, policy analyst at IISD, says: “AI allows us to analyze these huge datasets faster than before. We hope the Carbon Minefields newsletter will be a valuable tool to hold governments and companies to account for delivering on climate agreements.”
Notes for Editors
- July Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
- No New Fossil Fuel Projects: The logical first step in a transition to clean energy
- How the Transition Away From Fossil Fuel Production Can Be Included in New Climate Commitments and Plans
- COP 28 Agreement Signals “Beginning of the End” of the Fossil Fuel Era (UN Climate Change press release)
Media Contact
Megan Darby, Senior Communications Officer, IISD: mdarby@iisd.org
About IISD
The International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) is an award-winning independent think tank working to accelerate solutions for a stable climate, sustainable resource management, and fair economies. Our work inspires better decisions and sparks meaningful action to help people and the planet thrive. We shine a light on what can be achieved when governments, businesses, non-profits, and communities come together. IISD’s staff of more than 250 experts come from across the globe and from many disciplines. With offices in Winnipeg, Geneva, Ottawa, and Toronto, our work affects lives in nearly 100 countries.
You might also be interested in
July Edition | Carbon Minefields Oil and Gas Exploration Monitor
In June 2024, six governments issued 18 oil and gas exploration licences with embodied emissions of 14.7 MtCO2, led by Russia and China.
Report Calls on Fossil Fuel Producers to Map “Transition Away” in NDCs
With governments due to submit the next generation of NDCs in 2025 a new report identifies five elements countries should include to reflect the outcome of the global stocktake.
No New Fossil Fuel Projects Needed in the Transition to Net Zero
Existing fossil fuel projects are sufficient to meet projected energy demands in a global transition to net zero emissions, finds a new study by researchers from UCL and IISD.
Copenhagen Climate Ministerial: Expert comment
Around 40 climate leaders and ministers are meeting in Copenhagen from March 21 to 22 to discuss priorities for COP 29.