A paper from the Congressional Research Service (Biofuels: Agriculture, Infrastructure, and Market Constraints Related to Expanded Production) contends that biofuels will not make a significant contribution to America's energy security, even as production is ramped up over the coming decade. The CRS also warns that an expansion of the biofuels production poses potential threats to food supplies and the environment.

President George Bush recently announced a plan to increase consumption of alternative fuels from 5 billion gallons in 2007 to 35 billion gallons in 2017. Much of that is expected to come from ethanol. The Global Subsidies Initiative has estimated that the public costs associated with this proposal could amount to well over a hundred billion U.S. dollars over the next 11 years (See Subsidy Watch, Issue 9, February 2007). The CRS notes that additional legislative proposals could spur even greater levels of biofuels production in the coming decades, as much as 60 billion gallons by 2050.

However, the authors conclude that "expanding corn-based ethanol production to levels needed to significantly promote U.S. energy security is likely to be infeasible." Currently, 20% of the U.S. corn crop is used for ethanol, yet ethanol only accounts for approximately 2.4% of gasoline consumption on an energy equivalent basis.

The paper then goes through a host of issues that may arise as biofuel productions increases, including pressure on agricultural feedstock supplies; market and environmental effects; the energy supply needed to grow feedstocks and process them into fuel; and barriers to expanded infrastructure needed to deliver more and more biofuels to the market.