A policy brief from the Global Development and Environment Institute (GDEA) at Tufts University examines the link between bloated U.S. farm subsidies and expanding waistlines in the United States.

Consumer advocates have argued that US farm subsidies that lower the cost of corn are a key reason why consumption of high fructose corn syrup (HFSC) has sky-rocketed over the last four decades. Other researchers are more skeptical of the link, however, arguing that the impact that corn subsidies have on the prices of products like soft drinks is not significant enough to have a major impact on consumption.

The GDEA brief, authored by Alicia Harvie and Timothy A. Wise, estimates how much subsidized corn has lowered the cost of HFSC. The GDE estimates that, through 2005, corn was priced about 27% below cost due to implicit government subsidies, and on the basis that corn represents 44% of the cost of producing HFCS, the authors conclude that the wet milling industry saved about US$ 2.19 billion between 1997 and 2005.

Soda makers, in turn, saved about US$ 873 million over the same period thanks to subsidized corn, according to the GDEA.

So can low-cost corn be blamed for the obesity epidemic in the United States? While it has not helped, the authors conclude that, “HFCS just isn’t a large enough share of consumer prices to be the primary cause of over-consumption.”