Oxfam on Trade Liberalisation - A Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Models
Oxfam has released a research report, by Lance Taylor and Rudiger von Arnim (both of the New School for Social Research, New York) that presents a review and critique of the most widely used trade models based on computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The emphasis throughout Modelling the Impact of Trade Liberalisation: A Critique of Computable General Equilibrium Models is on methodology. The authors set out concise analytical arguments explaining what they see as the fundamental weaknesses of CGE models, paying particular attention to the way that these models conceptualize and measure welfare. The authors also argue that the manner in which the World Bank uses CGE modeling is highly problematic, making implausible assumptions about elasticities, the exchange rate, and macro causality. Using a table-top, two-region and three-sector CGE model which represents sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world, the authors illustrate that the results of modeling are radically different when alternative – and, they contend, more plausible – assumptions are made.