Gas Prospects in Colombia

The science is clear: according to all major Paris-aligned energy scenarios, for the world to reach net-zero emissions in line with the 1.5°C limit, global oil and gas production needs to decline rapidly. This pace of decline is as fast as or faster than projected declines in production from existing fields. Therefore, to minimize stranded assets and carbon lock-in, no new oil and gas fields can be opened.

The Colombian government, led by President Gustavo Petro, announced at the end of 2022 (and reiterated in January this year at the World Economic Forum in Davos) its commitment to not grant any new licences for oil and gas exploration. This political will is also behind Colombia’s decision in August 2023 to join the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance (BOGA) as a Friend of BOGA, a coalition of international actors working to advance clean energy transitions and reduce countries' dependency on fossil fuels. The commitment not to grant any new oil and gas licences was part of the government's electoral program ahead of winning the elections.

This commitment represents a historic decision for Colombia, the region, and the world. However, the "no-new-licences" provision leaves out a number of exploration projects that were licensed prior to the government's decision but have not yet been developed.

This brief focuses on those licensed offshore gas reserves that are being explored but have not yet received a final investment decision. The key objective of this analysis is to assess the risks of such exploration in the context of Colombia's recent political developments and climate ambitions and to discuss what alternatives are available to mitigate such risks. We conclude that there is no economic or other case for Colombia to develop the untapped fields under existing licences.